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Unemployment Likely To Fall to 7.2% in September, With Smaller Gains Going...
This post discusses my monthly update of the Barnichon-Nekarda model. For an introduction to the basic concepts used in this post, read my introductory post (Full details are available here.) Due to...
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Not Afraid of Tyler Cowen? You will be… A Review of Average is Over: Powering...
“This book is far from all good news,” begins Tyler Cowen’s Average is Over. No kidding, Tyler. In the eminently readable pages that follow, the economist-blogger outlines a predicted future where...
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Unemployment Ticks down but Not All Good News: 3.4 Million Are Missing from...
The U.S. unemployment rate dipped to 7.2% in September, the lowest rate since November 2008. The composition of the unemployed differed significantly in the two months, however. In November 2008 the...
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America: One-time Home of the “Employment Miracle”
The government shutdown and the nation’s near-default captured headlines, but they are unlikely to have huge consequences for the economic recovery. The current expansion has been slow but...
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Good News On The Labor Market Front! Unemployment to Steadily Drop Over Next...
Unemployment should decline by more than 0.1 percent per month over the next six months and to fall below 6.5 percent—the Fed's unemployment threshold—by February 2014. This post discusses my monthly...
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Resilient Job Market Puts Fed Tapering Back on Table
Despite the government shutdown, job creation was much stronger than expected in October, recording a 204,000 jump versus consensus expectations of 120,000. While furloughed government workers were...
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Deeply Conflicted Verdicts on Job Market Progress
The two BLS employment surveys gave us two starkly contrasting messages about job market trends in October. The survey of employers delivered the reassuring news that job gains remain strongly...
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After Last Month’s Big Drop, Expect Unemployment Rate to Stall
This post discusses my monthly update of the Barnichon-Nekarda model. For an introduction to the basic concepts used in this post, read my introductory post (Full details are available here.) In...
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America Isn’t Working: More than One in Six Men Between 25 and 54 Is Without...
Here is one of the most alarming signs that the U.S. economy is still far from healthy: More than one in six men between 25 and 54 years old – the prime working years – aren’t working. That’s 10.4...
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Continued Weakness in Payroll Gains, but Good News on Unemployment
For the second month in a row the BLS employer survey showed slowing job gains compared with the average gains in the previous 17 months. Between July 2012 and November 2013, monthly payroll increases...
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Does College Really Improve Social Mobility?
Americans are brought up to believe that a college degree is a ticket to a better life. And it is—for some. But if postsecondary education is supposed to be our engine of social mobility, it is in...
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Americans Need More Than a Minimum Wage Hike
Over the years, economists have produced countless studies either supporting or disputing the wisdom of raising the minimum wage. And last week's report by the non-partisan Congressional Budget added...
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Youth Unemployment Is a Problem for Social Mobility
The labor market doesn’t look good for today’s youth. Unemployment rates for those under 25 are over twice the national average and remain far above their pre-recession levels. High youth unemployment...
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Teen Births Are Falling: What’s Going On?
The United States has experienced a remarkable 52 percent decline in teen childbearing since 1991. Understanding the causes of this decline are important for developing subsequent policies to continue...
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Engage and Lead: A Conversation with Former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan
Event Information February 10, 2015 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM ESTFalk Auditorium 1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW Washington, DC Register for the Event As the 39th mayor of Los Angeles, Richard Riordan entered...
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Unemployment projected to drop to 5.4% in June and reach 4.7% by December
This post discusses my monthly update of the Barnichon-Nekarda model. For an introduction to the basic concepts used in this post, read my introductory post (Full details are available here.) In...
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June labor numbers: Decent on jobs but disappointing on labor force and wages
The rise in the number of payroll jobs of 223,000 recorded for June was in line with expectations, and shows a labor market that is continuing to recover from the Great Recession. But the June report...
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Alternative seasonal adjustments match official jobs totals
Each month, many thousands of workers across the U.S. lose their jobs, while others find themselves newly employed. The net number of jobs created or lost in all this activity is an important...
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Overtime pay will boost America's wages
Editor's Note: This article is also featured in Fortune. The June jobs report released today shows an increase of 223,000 payroll jobs and a drop in the national unemployment rate to 5.3%....
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July jobs report is like watching paint dry
This morning’s jobs report showed continued steady progress toward full employment in July. Employers added 215,000 to their payrolls in the month, and upward revisions in BLS employment numbers for...
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